Module 9 · Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations Lesson 87 of 120
Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation.
Transcript
20 sentences · select one to jump thereCheck your understanding
Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
Code lab
Run it yourself
The lesson source in 7 languages. Edit it, run TypeScript and Python right here, and compare with the expected output.
/**
* Fintech Math Bootcamp · Lesson 087 of 120
* Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
* Module 09: Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations
*
* Scenario: Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation
* Rule: prediction = intercept + slope·input
*
* Try it: Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
*
* Lesson article: https://thefintechbuilder.com/financial-mathematics-statistics-and-data-foundations/dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions/
* Free course: https://courses.thefintechbuilder.com
* Synthetic teaching example, not financial advice or a production library.
*/
export function lesson087() {
const intercept=2.2,slope=.6,xMin=1,xMax=5; // fitted on x in [1, 5]
const predict=(x:number)=>intercept+slope*x;
const outsideFit=(x:number)=>x<xMin||x>xMax; // note: x=0 is outside too
const result={at3:predict(3),at0:predict(0),at10:predict(10),
extrapolatedAt10:outsideFit(10)};
return result;
}
export const checkedResult = {"at3":4,"at0":2.2,"at10":8.2,"extrapolatedAt10":true};
// Run this file directly: npx tsx lessons/09-dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/087-intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions.ts
if (process.argv[1] && import.meta.url.endsWith(process.argv[1].replace(/\\/g, "/").split("/").pop()!)) {
console.log(JSON.stringify(lesson087(), null, 2));
}
Your output
Press Run to execute the code in your browser.
Expected output
{
"at3": 4,
"at0": 2.2,
"at10": 8.2,
"extrapolatedAt10": true
}"""
Fintech Math Bootcamp · Lesson 087 of 120
Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
Module 09: Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations
Scenario: Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation
Rule: prediction = intercept + slope·input
Try it: Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
Lesson article: https://thefintechbuilder.com/financial-mathematics-statistics-and-data-foundations/dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions/
Free course: https://courses.thefintechbuilder.com
Synthetic teaching example, not financial advice or a production library.
"""
import json
def lesson_087():
intercept, slope, x_min, x_max = 2.2, 0.6, 1, 5 # fitted on x in [1, 5]
def predict(x):
return intercept + slope * x
def outside_fit(x):
return x < x_min or x > x_max # note: x=0 is outside too
return {
"at3": predict(3),
"at0": predict(0),
"at10": predict(10),
"extrapolatedAt10": outside_fit(10),
}
if __name__ == "__main__":
print(json.dumps(lesson_087(), indent=2))
Your output
Press Run to execute the code in your browser.
Expected output
{
"at3": 4,
"at0": 2.2,
"at10": 8.2,
"extrapolatedAt10": true
}// Fintech Math Bootcamp - Lesson 087 of 120
// Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
// Module 09: Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations
//
// Scenario: Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation
// Rule: prediction = intercept + slope-input
//
// Try it: Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
//
// Lesson article: https://thefintechbuilder.com/financial-mathematics-statistics-and-data-foundations/dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions/
// Free course: https://courses.thefintechbuilder.com
// Synthetic teaching example, not financial advice or a production library.
import java.util.ArrayList;
import java.util.Arrays;
import java.util.LinkedHashMap;
import java.util.List;
import java.util.Map;
public class Main {
static final double INTERCEPT = 2.2, SLOPE = 0.6, X_MIN = 1, X_MAX = 5; // fitted on x in [1, 5]
static double predict(double x) {
return INTERCEPT + SLOPE * x;
}
static boolean outsideFit(double x) {
return x < X_MIN || x > X_MAX; // note: x=0 is outside too
}
static Map<String, Object> lesson087() {
Map<String, Object> result = new LinkedHashMap<String, Object>();
result.put("at3", predict(3));
result.put("at0", predict(0));
result.put("at10", predict(10));
result.put("extrapolatedAt10", outsideFit(10));
return result;
}
public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println(toJson(lesson087(), ""));
}
// Minimal JSON writer: two-space indent, whole numbers without a decimal point, NaN as null.
static String toJson(Object value, String indent) {
if (value == null) return "null";
if (value instanceof Boolean) return value.toString();
if (value instanceof Number) return formatNumber(((Number) value).doubleValue());
if (value instanceof String) return quote((String) value);
if (value instanceof double[]) {
List<Object> boxed = new ArrayList<Object>();
for (double d : (double[]) value) boxed.add(d);
return toJson(boxed, indent);
}
if (value instanceof Object[]) return toJson(Arrays.asList((Object[]) value), indent);
String inner = indent + " ";
StringBuilder out = new StringBuilder();
if (value instanceof Map) {
Map<?, ?> map = (Map<?, ?>) value;
if (map.isEmpty()) return "{}";
out.append("{\n");
int i = 0;
for (Map.Entry<?, ?> entry : map.entrySet()) {
out.append(inner).append(quote(entry.getKey().toString())).append(": ")
.append(toJson(entry.getValue(), inner));
out.append(++i < map.size() ? ",\n" : "\n");
}
return out.append(indent).append("}").toString();
}
List<?> list = (List<?>) value;
if (list.isEmpty()) return "[]";
out.append("[\n");
for (int i = 0; i < list.size(); i++) {
out.append(inner).append(toJson(list.get(i), inner));
out.append(i + 1 < list.size() ? ",\n" : "\n");
}
return out.append(indent).append("]").toString();
}
static String formatNumber(double x) {
if (Double.isNaN(x) || Double.isInfinite(x)) return "null";
if (x == Math.rint(x) && Math.abs(x) < 1e15) return Long.toString((long) x);
return Double.toString(x);
}
static String quote(String s) {
StringBuilder out = new StringBuilder("\"");
for (char c : s.toCharArray()) {
if (c == '"' || c == '\\') out.append('\\').append(c);
else if (c == '\n') out.append("\\n");
else if (c < 0x20) out.append(String.format("\\u%04x", (int) c));
else out.append(c);
}
return out.append('"').toString();
}
}
No browser runner for Java yet
Read the code here, then run it in your own toolchain or a ready-made cloud workspace.
Expected output
{
"at3": 4,
"at0": 2.2,
"at10": 8.2,
"extrapolatedAt10": true
}// Fintech Math Bootcamp · Lesson 087 of 120
// Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
// Module 09: Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations
//
// Scenario: Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation
// Rule: prediction = intercept + slope·input
//
// Try it: Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
//
// Lesson article: https://thefintechbuilder.com/financial-mathematics-statistics-and-data-foundations/dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions/
// Free course: https://courses.thefintechbuilder.com
// Synthetic teaching example, not financial advice or a production library.
package main
import (
"encoding/json"
"fmt"
)
type Lesson087Result struct {
At3 float64 `json:"at3"`
At0 float64 `json:"at0"`
At10 float64 `json:"at10"`
ExtrapolatedAt10 bool `json:"extrapolatedAt10"`
}
func lesson087() Lesson087Result {
intercept, slope, xMin, xMax := 2.2, 0.6, 1.0, 5.0 // fitted on x in [1, 5]
predict := func(x float64) float64 { return intercept + slope*x }
outsideFit := func(x float64) bool { return x < xMin || x > xMax } // note: x=0 is outside too
return Lesson087Result{
At3: predict(3),
At0: predict(0),
At10: predict(10),
ExtrapolatedAt10: outsideFit(10),
}
}
func main() {
out, err := json.MarshalIndent(lesson087(), "", " ")
if err != nil {
panic(err)
}
fmt.Println(string(out))
}
No browser runner for Go yet
Read the code here, then run it in your own toolchain or a ready-made cloud workspace.
Expected output
{
"at3": 4,
"at0": 2.2,
"at10": 8.2,
"extrapolatedAt10": true
}// Fintech Math Bootcamp · Lesson 087 of 120
// Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
// Module 09: Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations
//
// Scenario: Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation
// Rule: prediction = intercept + slope·input
//
// Try it: Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
//
// Lesson article: https://thefintechbuilder.com/financial-mathematics-statistics-and-data-foundations/dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions/
// Free course: https://courses.thefintechbuilder.com
// Synthetic teaching example, not financial advice or a production library.
#include <cmath>
#include <cstdio>
#include <cstdlib>
#include <iostream>
#include <optional>
#include <stdexcept>
#include <string>
#include <utility>
#include <vector>
// A minimal JSON value, enough to print this lesson's result.
struct Json {
enum class Kind { Null, Bool, Number, String, Array, Object };
Kind kind = Kind::Null;
bool flag = false;
double number = 0.0;
std::string text;
std::vector<std::string> keys; // object keys, parallel to items
std::vector<Json> items; // array elements or object values
Json() = default;
Json(bool value) : kind(Kind::Bool), flag(value) {}
Json(int value) : kind(Kind::Number), number(value) {}
Json(double value) : kind(Kind::Number), number(value) {}
Json(const char* value) : kind(Kind::String), text(value) {}
Json(const std::string& value) : kind(Kind::String), text(value) {}
Json(const std::vector<double>& values) : kind(Kind::Array) {
for (double v : values) items.push_back(Json(v));
}
};
Json jsonArray(const std::vector<Json>& values) {
Json array;
array.kind = Json::Kind::Array;
array.items = values;
return array;
}
Json jsonObject(const std::vector<std::pair<std::string, Json>>& fields) {
Json object;
object.kind = Json::Kind::Object;
for (const auto& field : fields) {
object.keys.push_back(field.first);
object.items.push_back(field.second);
}
return object;
}
// Shortest decimal form that reads back as the same double.
std::string formatNumber(double x) {
if (!std::isfinite(x)) return "null";
char buffer[32];
if (x == std::floor(x) && std::fabs(x) < 1e15) {
std::snprintf(buffer, sizeof buffer, "%.0f", x);
return buffer;
}
for (int precision = 1; precision <= 17; ++precision) {
std::snprintf(buffer, sizeof buffer, "%.*g", precision, x);
if (std::strtod(buffer, nullptr) == x) break;
}
return buffer;
}
std::string quote(const std::string& s) {
std::string out = "\"";
for (char c : s) {
if (c == '"' || c == '\\') { out += '\\'; out += c; }
else if (c == '\n') out += "\\n";
else out += c;
}
return out + "\"";
}
std::string toJson(const Json& value, const std::string& indent = "") {
switch (value.kind) {
case Json::Kind::Null: return "null";
case Json::Kind::Bool: return value.flag ? "true" : "false";
case Json::Kind::Number: return formatNumber(value.number);
case Json::Kind::String: return quote(value.text);
default: break;
}
const bool isObject = value.kind == Json::Kind::Object;
if (value.items.empty()) return isObject ? "{}" : "[]";
const std::string inner = indent + " ";
std::string out = isObject ? "{\n" : "[\n";
for (std::size_t i = 0; i < value.items.size(); ++i) {
out += inner;
if (isObject) out += quote(value.keys[i]) + ": ";
out += toJson(value.items[i], inner);
out += i + 1 < value.items.size() ? ",\n" : "\n";
}
return out + indent + (isObject ? "}" : "]");
}
Json lesson087() {
const double intercept = 2.2, slope = 0.6, xMin = 1, xMax = 5; // fitted on x in [1, 5]
auto predict = [=](double x) { return intercept + slope * x; };
auto outsideFit = [=](double x) { return x < xMin || x > xMax; }; // note: x=0 is outside too
return jsonObject({
{"at3", predict(3)},
{"at0", predict(0)},
{"at10", predict(10)},
{"extrapolatedAt10", outsideFit(10)},
});
}
int main() {
std::cout << toJson(lesson087()) << '\n';
return 0;
}
No browser runner for C++ yet
Read the code here, then run it in your own toolchain or a ready-made cloud workspace.
Expected output
{
"at3": 4,
"at0": 2.2,
"at10": 8.2,
"extrapolatedAt10": true
}// Fintech Math Bootcamp · Lesson 087 of 120
// Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
// Module 09: Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations
//
// Scenario: Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation
// Rule: prediction = intercept + slope·input
//
// Try it: Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
//
// Lesson article: https://thefintechbuilder.com/financial-mathematics-statistics-and-data-foundations/dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions/
// Free course: https://courses.thefintechbuilder.com
// Synthetic teaching example, not financial advice or a production library.
/// A minimal JSON value, enough to print this lesson's result.
#[allow(dead_code)]
enum Json {
Null,
Bool(bool),
Num(f64),
Str(String),
Arr(Vec<Json>),
Obj(Vec<(String, Json)>),
}
#[allow(dead_code)]
impl Json {
fn obj(fields: Vec<(&str, Json)>) -> Json {
Json::Obj(fields.into_iter().map(|(k, v)| (k.to_string(), v)).collect())
}
fn nums(values: &[f64]) -> Json {
Json::Arr(values.iter().map(|&v| Json::Num(v)).collect())
}
/// Pretty-prints with two-space indentation.
fn pretty(&self, indent: &str) -> String {
let inner = format!("{} ", indent);
match self {
Json::Null => "null".to_string(),
Json::Bool(b) => b.to_string(),
Json::Num(x) => format_number(*x),
Json::Str(s) => quote(s),
Json::Arr(items) if items.is_empty() => "[]".to_string(),
Json::Obj(fields) if fields.is_empty() => "{}".to_string(),
Json::Arr(items) => {
let body: Vec<String> = items
.iter()
.map(|v| format!("{}{}", inner, v.pretty(&inner)))
.collect();
format!("[\n{}\n{}]", body.join(",\n"), indent)
}
Json::Obj(fields) => {
let body: Vec<String> = fields
.iter()
.map(|(k, v)| format!("{}{}: {}", inner, quote(k), v.pretty(&inner)))
.collect();
format!("{{\n{}\n{}}}", body.join(",\n"), indent)
}
}
}
}
fn format_number(x: f64) -> String {
if !x.is_finite() {
"null".to_string()
} else if x == x.trunc() && x.abs() < 1e15 {
format!("{}", x as i64)
} else {
format!("{}", x)
}
}
fn quote(s: &str) -> String {
let mut out = String::from("\"");
for c in s.chars() {
match c {
'"' => out.push_str("\\\""),
'\\' => out.push_str("\\\\"),
'\n' => out.push_str("\\n"),
c => out.push(c),
}
}
out.push('"');
out
}
fn lesson_087() -> Json {
let (intercept, slope, x_min, x_max) = (2.2_f64, 0.6_f64, 1.0_f64, 5.0_f64); // fitted on x in [1, 5]
let predict = |x: f64| intercept + slope * x;
let outside_fit = |x: f64| x < x_min || x > x_max; // note: x=0 is outside too
Json::obj(vec![
("at3", Json::Num(predict(3.0))),
("at0", Json::Num(predict(0.0))),
("at10", Json::Num(predict(10.0))),
("extrapolatedAt10", Json::Bool(outside_fit(10.0))),
])
}
fn main() {
println!("{}", lesson_087().pretty(""));
}
No browser runner for Rust yet
Read the code here, then run it in your own toolchain or a ready-made cloud workspace.
Expected output
{
"at3": 4,
"at0": 2.2,
"at10": 8.2,
"extrapolatedAt10": true
}// Fintech Math Bootcamp · Lesson 087 of 120
// Intercepts, Slopes, Coefficients, and Predictions
// Module 09: Dependence, Regression, and Model Foundations
//
// Scenario: Interpreting a coefficient before using it for extrapolation
// Rule: prediction = intercept + slope·input
//
// Try it: Is the prediction at x=10 validated by fitting on x=1 through 5?
//
// Lesson article: https://thefintechbuilder.com/financial-mathematics-statistics-and-data-foundations/dependence-regression-and-model-foundations/intercepts-slopes-coefficients-and-predictions/
// Free course: https://courses.thefintechbuilder.com
// Synthetic teaching example, not financial advice or a production library.
using System;
using System.Collections.Generic;
using System.Linq;
using System.Text.Json;
var options = new JsonSerializerOptions { WriteIndented = true };
Console.WriteLine(JsonSerializer.Serialize(Lesson087(), options));
static object Lesson087()
{
double intercept = 2.2, slope = 0.6, xMin = 1, xMax = 5; // fitted on x in [1, 5]
double Predict(double x) => intercept + slope * x;
bool OutsideFit(double x) => x < xMin || x > xMax; // note: x=0 is outside too
return new
{
at3 = Predict(3),
at0 = Predict(0),
at10 = Predict(10),
extrapolatedAt10 = OutsideFit(10),
};
}
No browser runner for C# yet
Read the code here, then run it in your own toolchain or a ready-made cloud workspace.
Expected output
{
"at3": 4,
"at0": 2.2,
"at10": 8.2,
"extrapolatedAt10": true
}Prefer your own machine? Every file is in the course repository · open it in Codespaces.
Lesson notes
The rule
prediction = intercept + slope·input